KResearch is of the view that the recent revision of Thailand’s credit rating outlook by a credit rating agency from “Stable” to “Negative”, while affirming the credit rating at BBB+

Ms. Nattaporn Triratanasirikul, KResearch Deputy Managing Director, said that when compared with other countries in the same rating group (BBB+ or Baa1), Thailand’s fiscal position is weaker, particularly due to the rapid increase in public debt and the persistently high fiscal deficit.

If the Thai economy grows only 2 percent per year going forward, the fiscal deficit may remain above -4.0 percent of GDP, and public debt is likely to approach 70 percent of GDP ceiling by 2027. In light of this, the Thai government is currently reviewing its medium-term fiscal plan, from which clearer details are expected to emerge soon.

Dr. Lalita Thienprasiddhi, Head – Research at KResearch, said that lessons from abroad show that countries able to avoid a sovereign credit downgrade typically implement concrete policies to narrow their fiscal deficits. For example, Italy managed to reduce its deficit from 8.0 percent to below 4.0 percent of GDP within a few years through measures to raise revenue, cut expenditures, and improve the efficiency of public spending.

France, by contrast, saw both an outlook revision and a credit downgrade due to its widening fiscal deficit, which led to higher financial costs, while the credit ratings of certain government-related agencies were also lowered accordingly. Nevertheless, a sovereign downgrade does not necessarily imply that private-sector ratings will move in the same direction; this depends on each company’s financial position.

Ms. Palitchaya Ritsuk, Researcher at KResearch, stated that Thailand’s approach to reducing its fiscal deficit may need to focus on increasing public revenue, as most expenditures are difficult to cut. In the short term, piecemeal revenue-raising measures may help stabilize the situation to some extent.

However, in the medium to long term, sustainable fiscal reform may necessitate the development of an effective database to design well-targeted welfare policies, coupled with tax base expansion and structural economic reform.

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Mr. Charat Rattanaboonniti, EXIM Thailand President, revealed that the Event highlights the achievements of entrepreneurs who have undergone incubation in the “SMEs Export Studio” Program during 2023-2025, as well as showcases the creativity of new generation entrepreneurs from the “EXIM 2X” Program Class 1, 2025, which equips entrepreneurs with end-to-end export expertise, from packaging design and brand identity building to strategic foreign market planning and enhancement of product standards to meet global market needs. The Program serves as a forum for Thai Entrepreneurs’ real market testing and assessment of the prospects and needs of consumers before expansion to the global front.

This event would open up opportunities for entrepreneurs to have real market testing ahead of fully entering export operations. EXIM Thailand has joined forces with public and private partners to strengthen SMEs’ competitiveness through the 2D-2S development model: Design & Packaging, Digital Transformation, Standards & Sustainability, and Strategic Partnerships, in combination with incubation of new generation entrepreneurs under the EXIM 2X Program to build them as a future driving force of Thai export growth.

EXIM Thailand will continue advancing its role as an “Export Co-pilot,” acting as a comprehensive business partner for exporters. The Bank will broaden its proactive efforts in connecting Thai entrepreneurs with high potential overseas buyers, mitigating risks from global economic downturns, and geopolitical tensions.

EXIM Thailand will work closely with public and private alliance agencies both domestically and overseas in providing knowledge, advisory support, and market-entry guidance in areas such as marketing, risk management, and access to financing.

Furthermore, EXIM Thailand will boost liquidity for participating entrepreneurs with offering of such financial products as export credit facilities at special interest rates and export credit insurance covering up to 300,000 baht to mitigate risks of non-payment by foreign buyers. These initiatives reinforce the government’s “Quick Big Win” policy to strengthen Thai entrepreneurs’ capabilities, expand trade opportunities, and solidify the global presence of Thai products.

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