The value of Thai exports in November 2025 grew by 7.1% YoY, accelerating from the previous month's 5.7% YoY, partly reflecting a smaller contraction in gold exports. However, monthly momentum is weakening continuously, reflecting the clearer impact of the US tariffs. Imports, meanwhile, continued to expand strongly at 17.6% YoY, resulting in a trade deficit of US$2,726.86 million.

The outlook for 2026 projects Thai exports to contract by -1.0% due to the impact of US tariffs and intensified global competition. Key factors to watch include: 1) uncertainty regarding the liquidation of existing stock by trading partners in the US, which could lead to a faster-than-expected decline in orders; 2) the appreciation of the Thai baht; and 3) a potential US Supreme Court ruling deeming the tariffs illegal, which could result in a temporary tariff-free period.

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